SBM Forecasts Mauritius GDP Growth of 2.9% in 2026, 3.5% in 2027

The research division of State Bank of Mauritius (SBM), one of the island's largest commercial banks, has released its latest economic outlook for Mauritius, projecting GDP growth of 2.9 percent in 2026 and 3.5 percent in 2027.

The report, published under the SBM Insights banner, offers a cautiously optimistic reading of the Mauritian economy over the medium term. While the figures represent a recovery trajectory, the 2026 forecast is notably modest compared to the stronger growth rates the island recorded in the post-pandemic rebound years.

SBM Insights is the in-house economic analysis unit of SBM Holdings, a financial group listed on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM) with operations spanning Africa and Asia. Its periodic economic commentaries are closely watched by investors, businesses and policymakers as an independent benchmark of private-sector sentiment.

Mauritius has historically relied on four main economic pillars: tourism, financial services, manufacturing, and information and communication technology. Growth projections in this range suggest a stabilisation phase rather than a rapid expansion, likely reflecting global headwinds including trade uncertainty, tighter monetary conditions in major partner economies, and domestic fiscal pressures.

The 3.5 percent forecast for 2027 signals an expectation of a modest acceleration, potentially tied to continued recovery in tourist arrivals, progress on infrastructure investment, and the impact of structural reforms being pursued by the current government.

These projections come at a time when Mauritius is navigating a challenging fiscal environment. Public debt remains elevated following pandemic-era spending, and the cost of living continues to weigh on households. The government has signalled a commitment to fiscal consolidation, but balancing debt reduction with growth-supportive spending remains a central policy tension.

For context, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of Mauritius, the country's central bank, also publish regular growth forecasts. Comparing private-sector projections like those from SBM Insights with official figures gives a fuller picture of the economic outlook.

What this means: For ordinary Mauritians, growth in the 2.9 to 3.5 percent range suggests the economy is moving forward, but not at a pace likely to quickly ease pressures on household incomes or unemployment. For businesses and investors, the forecast implies a stable if unspectacular environment, with 2027 offering slightly more room for expansion. Policymakers will be watching whether actual outturns meet these projections as the 2026 budget cycle unfolds.

Source: Le Defi Media