Mauritius Inflation Could Hit 5% Again by End of 2026

Mauritius may be heading back toward uncomfortably high inflation, with analysts warning that the annual rate could reach 5% by December 2026. The alert comes after Statistics Mauritius recorded an annual inflation rate of 5.7% in September 2025, and follows a fresh assessment by SBM Insights, the research arm of one of the island's largest banking groups, the State Bank of Mauritius.

Several forces are driving prices upward. International trade tensions are disrupting global supply chains, while the cost of maritime freight, the main channel through which Mauritius imports the vast majority of its goods, has risen sharply. Fuel prices remain elevated, adding pressure across transport and logistics. On top of these external shocks, domestic fiscal measures, including tax increases introduced in recent budget cycles, are feeding through to consumer prices.

Consumer associations in Mauritius have raised concerns about the burden already felt by households, particularly for basic food items and utilities. Mauritius is a small island economy that imports a large share of its food, fuel and manufactured goods, which makes it especially vulnerable to shifts in global commodity and shipping costs. When freight rates rise or the rupee weakens against major currencies, the effect on supermarket shelves and petrol stations is felt quickly.

Statistics Mauritius, the government agency responsible for official economic data, tracks inflation through the Consumer Price Index, which measures changes in the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services used by typical households. A rate above 5% is considered elevated by Mauritian standards. For comparison, inflation averaged around 10.8% in 2022 at its peak before gradually easing through 2023 and 2024.

SBM Insights analysts have flagged that the combination of persistent external pressures and domestic tax adjustments makes a dip back below 4% unlikely in the near term, barring a significant easing in global commodity markets.

What this means for residents and businesses: Mauritians can expect continued pressure on household budgets through 2026, particularly for imported goods, food and transport. Businesses that rely on imported inputs face squeezed margins unless they pass costs on to consumers, which risks fuelling inflation further. Workers whose wages do not keep pace with price rises will see their real purchasing power erode. The government and the Bank of Mauritius, the island's central bank, will face pressure to balance growth support against the need to keep inflation in check. Investors and expatriates holding rupee-denominated assets should factor currency and inflation risk into their planning.

Source: Le Defi Media