Mare-aux-Vacoas Could Hit Critical 20% Level by February 2027

Mauritius's main reservoir, Mare-aux-Vacoas, is continuing to drain at an alarming rate — and if current trends hold, it could become operationally difficult to extract water from as early as February 2027. **Where the reservoir stands now** As of 17 September 2026, Mare-aux-Vacoas held 10.32 million cubic metres of water — just 39.9% of its total capacity of 25.89 million cubic metres. Three days earlier, on 14 September, it stood at 10.43 million cubic metres (40.3%). That means the reservoir lost 110,000 cubic metres in just 72 hours, an average daily decline of approximately 36,700 cubic metres. **The timeline if nothing changes** Based on this rate of depletion — and assuming no significant rainfall and no changes in consumption or water extraction — the projections are sobering: - **30% capacity** (around 7.77 million m³): reached in approximately 70 days, around **26 November 2026**. - **20% capacity** (around 5.18 million m³): reached in approximately 140 days, around **4 February 2027**. These are modelling projections, not official forecasts, but they are grounded in real daily depletion data. **Why 20% matters** At 20% capacity, the reservoir does not automatically shut down — there is no official threshold at which extraction is formally halted. However, at such low volumes, the practical ability to pump and treat water becomes increasingly challenging. The positioning of water intake pipes, pumping conditions, and water quality all deteriorate as levels fall. In short, the water may technically still be there, but getting it out cleanly and efficiently becomes a serious operational problem. Mare-aux-Vacoas, located in the Plaines Wilhems district in the central highlands of Mauritius, is the island's largest reservoir and a cornerstone of the national water supply managed by the Central Water Authority (CWA). It serves a large portion of the island's population, making any sustained decline in its levels a matter of national concern. **What this means for Mauritians** The dry season in Mauritius typically runs from May to November, so some decline is expected — but the current rate of loss is drawing attention. If rainfall does not arrive soon to replenish the reservoir, the CWA and authorities may need to consider demand-side measures such as rationing, increased pumping from alternative sources, or public water-saving campaigns. Residents in areas dependent on Mare-aux-Vacoas should monitor any official guidance from the CWA closely. For now, authorities have not announced emergency measures, but the trajectory of the data leaves little room for complacency. Source: ION News