Chagos Deal: 'Trump Opposes It, Not the US Military'

In a wide-ranging interview with Mauritius Times, David Snoxell — Coordinator of the Chagos Islands All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) in the UK Parliament — has pushed back against the narrative that Washington is blocking the Chagos sovereignty deal, and raised a striking long-term warning: Diego Garcia itself may not survive climate change. **The US Position: Trump vs. the Pentagon** One of the most persistent arguments against the Mauritius–UK treaty on the Chagos Islands is that the United States opposes it, given the strategic importance of Diego Garcia — the heavily fortified joint US–UK military base located on the atoll. Snoxell disputes that characterisation sharply. "The UK is not under US pressure over Chagos," he told Mauritius Times. "The US Administration broadly supports the treaty; it is the President who opposes it." This is a crucial distinction. The US military establishment, which relies on Diego Garcia as a key hub for operations across the Indian Ocean, the Middle East, and beyond, reportedly sees the treaty as workable. It is Donald Trump personally who has expressed opposition — a position that does not necessarily reflect the institutional view of the Pentagon or the State Department. **What the Chagos Treaty Would Do** After decades of legal battles, diplomatic negotiations, and painful controversy over the forced removal of the Chagossian people in the 1960s and 70s, Mauritius and the United Kingdom reached a landmark agreement in principle in 2024. Under the deal, the UK would cede sovereignty over the Chagos Islands — which Mauritius has long claimed as its territory — to Mauritius. In exchange, the UK (and by extension the US) would retain the right to operate the Diego Garcia base for a defined period, estimated at around 99 years. The agreement stalled after Trump returned to office in January 2025, with his administration signalling reluctance. Negotiations have continued, though no final treaty has been signed. **A Base That May Not Last Forever** Perhaps the most striking insight from Snoxell's interview is the long-term environmental calculation. He suggests that by 2127 — roughly a century from now — the US may no longer need a military base in the Indian Ocean in its current form, and that rising sea levels could make Diego Garcia physically inoperable regardless of any political agreement. Diego Garcia sits just a few feet above sea level. Climate scientists have long warned that low-lying atolls across the Indian Ocean face existential risk from sea-level rise driven by global warming. If the base becomes uninhabitable due to flooding and erosion, the question of who holds sovereignty over the islands becomes, in practical terms, moot. **Why This Matters for Mauritius** For Mauritius, the Chagos question is not just about territory. It touches on national identity, historical injustice, sovereignty over an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) that spans a vast expanse of ocean, and the rights of the Chagossian community — many of whom live in Mauritius and the UK and have campaigned for the right of return for generations. A finalised treaty would represent one of the most significant diplomatic achievements in Mauritian history. Its continued delay keeps both the sovereignty question and the Chagossian people's future in limbo. Source: Mauritius Times